Yen on defensive on U.S. fiscal worry, helps Nikkei

TOKYO (Reuters) - Uncertainty over whether U.S. lawmakers will strike a deal by an end-of-year deadline to avert a severe fiscal retrenchment undermined the yen and bolstered Japanese shares on Tuesday in low volume, with many participants away on Christmas holiday.

The dollar rose to a 20-month high of 84.965 yen early on Tuesday in Asia, as Japanese markets caught up with global investors who had reacted overnight to incoming Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's weekend comments that raised the pressure on the Bank of Japan.

During a meeting on Tuesday with officials from Japan's major business lobby, Keidanren, Abe reiterated calls on the BOJ to conduct bold monetary easing to beat deflation by setting an inflation target of 2 percent.

The head of Abe's coalition partner said on Tuesday the coalition party and Abe had agreed to set a 2 percent inflation target and compile a large stimulus budget to help the economy return to growth and overcome deflation.

The yen has come under pressure as a result of expectations that the BOJ will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year.

The dollar was expected to stay firm this week as investors repatriate dollars, and as the U.S. fiscal impasse is likely to continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"The dollar is seen relatively well bid, with all focus on the fiscal cliff," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"Negotiations may be carried over the weekend, but markets still expect a deal to be struck by December 31. It is unthinkable that the U.S. will risk driving its economic growth sharply lower by not agreeing to avoid it."

U.S. lawmakers and President Barack Obama were on Christmas holiday and talks were unlikely to resume until later in the week.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan at the end of last week, raising fears that the United States may face the "fiscal cliff" of some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start on January 1.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> resumed trading after a three-day weekend with a 1.1 percent gain, recapturing the key 10,000 mark it ceded on Friday after Boehner's failure sparked a broad market sell-off and the Tokyo benchmark closed down 1 percent. The Nikkei was likely to be supported as long as the yen stayed weak. <.t/>

"Ongoing optimism about the weak yen is lifting hopes that exporters' earnings will be better than expected," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Analysts say a near-term correction may be possible as the index is now in "overbought" territory after gaining 16.2 percent over the last six weeks, hitting a nine-month high last Friday. Its 14-day relative strength index was at 72.34, above the 70 level that signals an overbought condition.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> nudged up 0.1 percent, driven higher by surging Shanghai shares, as most Asian bourses were shut for Christmas.

The Shanghai Composite Index <.ssec> soared over 2 percent to five-month highs as investors bought property stocks on mounting optimism about the sector. Taiwan shares <.twii> jumped 1.3 percent on gains in technology and financial shares.

Asset performance in 2012: http://link.reuters.com/muc46s

2012 commodities returns: http://link.reuters.com/faz36s

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U.S. HOLDS 2013 KEY

Goro Ohwada, president and CEO at Japan-based fund of hedge funds Aino Investment Corp, said investors were likely to focus on economic fundamentals and the United States for cues on investment direction in 2013.

"There is a feeling that an investment strategy based on economic fundamentals may finally work next year, with asset prices more closely reflecting fair value. The problem is, we don't know yet which asset is a better bet than others," Ohwada said, adding that oil and gold appeared to be near their highs.

Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory, said commodities and energy prices will likely move in tight ranges in 2013, with investors eyeing political events, including the U.S. fiscal cliff outlook, Italian parliamentary election set for February 24-25, and Germany's elections in September.

"The macroeconomic policies taken this year around the world to support growth are expected to result in a moderate recovery in 2013 to reduce an excessive downside risk to prices. This will likely keep commodities, gold and energy prices near their highs," Niimura said.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Daniel Magnowski)

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Monti ‘available to lead Italy’

23 December 2012 Last updated at 08:29 ET

Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti says he is not siding for now with any party in upcoming elections, but remains available to head a future government.

Mr Monti said he was ready to lead any coalition committed to his reforms.

The caretaker prime minister said he was unable to accept an offer from former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to lead a centrist coalition.

Elections are to be held in February. Mr Monti resigned after Mr Berlusconi’s party withdrew its support.

Mr Monti was nominated as technocratic prime minister in November 2011, after Mr Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition government fell amidst a financial and economic crisis.

Speaking at a news conference in Rome, Mr Monti urged Italian parties not to destroy what he said was his government’s achievement in saving Italy from that crisis.

“That financial emergency has been overcome,” he said. “Italians can once again hold their heads high as citizens of Europe.”

Keeping options open

Asked repeatedly if he was going to run in the 24-25 February election, Mr Monti said he cared more about policies than about the personalities involved in the election.

“I’m not siding with anyone – I’d like parties and social forces to side with ideas,” he said.

But he added: “To the forces that show convinced and credible adherence to the Monti agenda, I would be ready to give my advice, my encouragement and if necessary leadership,” he said.

“I would also be ready to assume one day, if required by circumstances, the responsibilities that would be entrusted to me by the parliament.”

The BBC’s David Willey says Mr Monti, whose possible role in February’s election has been the subject of intense speculation in Italy, is playing his cards close to his chest – whilst keeping his options open.

Mr Monti, 69, is an economist and former EU commissioner who first served as a minister under Mr Berlusconi in 1994.

His government has been praised for its initial reforms and for calming financial markets, though much of its reform agenda has been watered down or blocked.

On Sunday, he appealed to parties to push through further reforms of Italy’s labour market and its institutions.

He also criticised Mr Berlusconi for recently attacking the technocratic government, despite having previously praised it.

“I struggle to follow his line of thought,” Mr Monti said.

Mr Berlusconi, 76, has been mired in a series of sexual and financial scandals.

He made conflicting statements about whether he would remain in politics before launching into his sixth general election campaign.

Current polls suggest the centre-left Democratic Party led by Pier Luigi Bersani would win the most votes in a general election.

BBC News – Business

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Japan stocks rally as yen continues to weaken

BANGKOK (AP) — Japan’s benchmark stock index jumped Tuesday as a softening yen helped boost the country’s powerhouse export sector. The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo rallied 1.4 percent to close at 10,080.12, with export shares leading the way.

The yen traded at a 20-month high of 84.95 yen in New York after incoming Prime Minister Shinzo Abe turned up the pressure on the Bank of Japan to adopt a 2 percent inflation target. During a televised program Sunday, Abe said he will consider revising the Bank of Japan Act if the central bank refuses to act at next month’s policy meeting, Kyodo News Agency said.

That’s designed to fight deflation, or continually dropping prices, which deadens economic activity. The Japanese economy has been stuck in deflation for two decades. On Monday in Asia, the dollar stood at 84.77 yen.

Mazda Motor Corp. gained 2 percent, while Nikon Corp. advanced 2.3 percent. Nomura Holdings jumped 6.3 percent.

Stocks in mainland China posted strong gains. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.5 percent to 2,213.61. The smaller Shenzhen Composite Index surged 2.4 percent to 855.79. Shares in real estate, financial services and travel-related companies led the gains.

Poly Real Estate, China’s second-largest listed developer, gained 4.7 percent while industry leader China Vanke soared 6 percent.

Markets in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand were among those closed for Christmas.

On Wall Street on Monday, the last day of trading before Christmas, stocks fell on concern that time is running out for lawmakers to reach a budget deal to avoid the U.S. going over the “fiscal cliff.”

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.4 percent to close at 13,139.08. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 0.2 percent to 1,426.66. The Nasdaq composite index fell 0.2 percent to 3,012.60.

For weeks, discussions between the White House and Congress over a budget deal have been the main driver in markets. If a deal isn’t reached by the start of 2013, automatic spending cuts and tax increases worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be imposed — which many economists think could push the U.S. economy back into recession.

Most markets across Europe were open for only half a day on Monday and won’t reopen until Thursday.

As well as monitoring developments in the U.S. over the coming days, investors will be keeping a close watch on what’s going on in Italy ahead of a general election in February.

Over the weekend, outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti indicated that he would be willing to return to the role if pro-reform parties back him. Monti has won praise for his economic reforms and efforts to get a grip on the country’s borrowing. Italy has the second-highest debt burden among the 17 EU countries that use the euro. Only Greece’s is higher.

Meanwhile, Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., said in a report that China’s apparent oil demand rose 9.1 percent in November from a year earlier to 42.96 million metric tons, an average of 10.5 million barrels per day, the highest on record.

___

Follow Pamela Sampson on Twitter at http://twitter.com/pamelasampson

___

AP researcher Fu Ting contributed from Shanghai.

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Pagano back to coach Colts after cancer treatment

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Chuck Pagano stepped to the podium Monday, hugged his team owner, thanked his family for its support and wiped a tear from his eye.

He might, finally, turn out the lights in his office, too.

Nearly three months to the day after being diagnosed with leukemia, the Colts' first-year coach returned to a team eager to reunite with a boss healthy enough to go back to work.

"I told you my best day of my life was July 1, 1989," Pagano said, referring to his wedding date. "Today was No. 2. Getting to pull up, drive in, get out of my car, the key fob still worked. I was beginning to question whether it would or not. When I asked for Bruce to take over, I asked for him to kick some you-know-what and to do great. Damn Bruce, you had to go and win nine games? Tough act to follow. Tough act to follow. Best in the history of the NFL. That's what I have to come back to."

The comment turned tears into the laughter everyone expected on such a festive occasion.

For Pagano and the Colts, Monday morning was as precious as anyone could have imagined when Pagano took an indefinite leave to face the biggest opponent of his life, cancer.

In his absence, all the Colts was win nine of 12 games, make a historic turnaround and clinch a playoff spot all before Sunday's regular-season finale against Houston, which they pegged as the day they hoped to have Pagano back. If all goes well at practice this week, Pagano will be on the sideline for the first time since a Week 3 loss to Jacksonville.

Pagano endured three rounds of chemotherapy to put his cancer in remission.

That Pagano's return came less than 24 hours after Indy (10-5) locked up the No. 5 seed in the AFC and the day before Christmas seemed fitting, too.

"I know Chuck is ready for this challenge. In speaking to his doctor multiple times, I know that the time is right for him to grab the reins, get the head coaching cap on and begin the journey," owner Jim Irsay said. "It's been a miraculous story. It really is a book. It's a fairytale. It's a Hollywood script. It's all those things but it's real."

The reality is that he's returning to a vastly different team than the one he turned over to Arians, his long-time friend and first assistant coaching hire.

Back then, the Colts were 1-2 and most of the so-called experts had written them off as one of the league's worst teams. Now, they're ready to show the football world that they can be just as successful under Pagano as they were under Arians, who tied the NFL record for wins after a midseason coaching change.

Pagano also has changed.

The neatly-trimmed salt-and-pepper hair and trademark goatee that were missing in November have slowly returned, and the thinner man who appeared to be catching his breath during a postgame speech in early November, looked and sounded as good as ever Monday.

He repeatedly thanked fans for their prayers and letters, the organization and his family for their unwavering help and promised to provide comfort and support to other people who are facing similar fights. During one poignant moment that nearly brought out tears again, Pagano even recounted a letter sent to him by a 9-year-old child who suggested he suck on ice chips and strawberry Popsicles in the hospital and advised him to be nice to the nurses regardless of how he felt — and he never even paused.

"I feel great, my weight is back, my energy is back and again, it's just a blessing to be back here," Pagano said.

In the minds of Colts players and coaches, Pagano never really left.

He continually watched practice tape and game film on his computer, used phone calls and text messages to regularly communicate with players and occasionally delivered a pregame or postgame speech to his team.

"He texted me and called me so much, it was like he was standing there in my face every day," said receiver Reggie Wayne, who has been friends with Pagano since the two were working together at the University of Miami.

But the Colts found plenty of other ways to keep Pagano's battle in the forefront.

They began a fundraising campaign for leukemia research, calling it Chuckstrong. Players had stickers with the initials CP on their locker room nameplates, and Arians wore an orange ribbon on his baseball cap during games. Orange is the symbolic color for leukemia. At one point, nearly three dozen players shaved their heads to show their ailing coach they were with him.

That's not all.

Arians and first-year general manager Ryan Grigson decided to leave the lights on in Pagano's office until he returned. Pagano noted the team even installed plastic clips to make sure those lights were not mistakenly turned off while he was gone. Those clips were removed when Pagano arrived Monday morning.

And Arians said nobody sat in the front seat of the team bus.

"He's always been our head coach," Arians said.

So after getting medical clearance from his oncologist, Dr. Larry Cripe, to return with no restrictions, Pagano couldn't wait to get to the office Monday morning.

Arians arrived at 7 a.m., three hours early for the scheduled team meeting. By then, Pagano had already driven past the inflatable Colts player with the words "Welcome Back Chuck" printed on its chest and was back in his office preparing for the Texans.

Players showed up a couple of hours later, and when the torch was passed from Arians back to Pagano, players gave their returning coach a standing ovation that Wayne said was well-deserved.

All Pagano wants to do now is emulate the success Arians and his players have had this season.

"I asked him (Arians) if he would lead this team and this ballclub and this organization and take over the reins," Pagano said. "What a masterful, masterful job you did Bruce. You carried the torch and all you went out and did was win nine ballgames. You got us our 10th win yesterday and you got us into the playoffs. You did it with dignity and you did it with class. You're everything that I always knew you were and more."

___

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Shootings: Suicide risk gives clues

A sign near a cemetery of a victim in the school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Daniel Flannery: Studies show there is no distinct profile of school shooters


• Flannery: We can take lessons from what we know about risk for suicide


• He says we can do better to assess a person's risk for violent action toward others


• Flannery: Communities and schools should pay more attention to kids' mental health

Editor's note: Daniel J. Flannery is the Dr. Semi J. and Ruth Begun professor and director of the Begun Center for Violence Prevention, Research and Education at the Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences at Case Western Reserve University.

(CNN) -- It is hard not to feel a sense of despair, loss and anxiety over the shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. We want answers. We may not know for a very long time, if ever, what really motivated the shooter.

Previous studies of school shooters show us that some common mental health symptoms characterize many of the perpetrators, including poor anger management ability, narcissism, low self-esteem and lack of empathy. However, there are still many more differences across shooters than similarities, so to date there is no distinct profile of school shooters.

What can we do, aside from the psychological autopsying of recent incidents, to try and prevent more homicide school shootings? There is no simple answer. But we can take some lessons from what we know about risk for suicide.

Daniel J. Flannery

For many years, we have done a pretty good job of getting people to take threats of suicide seriously. If a young person walks into a counselor's office and says something like, "I think I'm going to kill myself," that counselor has been professionally trained and socialized to not underestimate the threat of self-injury.

Certainly, not every young adult who says such a thing goes on to commit suicide. Evidence shows that many of them have at least thought about hurting or killing themselves at some point, but few actually make a real attempt and fewer still carry it out.

Developing a good model for assessing the risk of suicide can provide a framework for how to assess the seriousness of threats to commit acts of violence toward others.

For example, one of the best predictors of suicide is previous suicide attempts. We try to determine whether a person has access to lethal methods of self-harm (drugs, firearms) and how detailed are the plans to carry out the act. We look for signs of anger and whether the person has experienced a recent crisis or loss. We try to figure out if a person's sense of rejection or disenfranchisement leads to a sense of hopelessness about the future, and a conviction that suicide is the only way out of a desperate situation. Moreover, if a person knows someone close who has committed suicide, we have to be vigilant since there tends to be an increase (clustering) of suicides among friends or acquaintances.

Each of these signposts can help us do a better job of assessing a person's risk for carrying out acts of violence toward others like in the school shootings.

We can look for any history of violence -- whether the person has written about or told others of his or her intent. We can try to find out whether the person has access to firearms or has thought out a plan to carry out an attack. We can try to evaluate levels of anger, feelings of rejection, or expressions of hopelessness about the future.

Most adolescent school shooters have said something to peers prior to taking any action, but not always to the direct target of an attack, and rarely to an adult. (In contrast, in rampage shootings carried out by adults, we don't have as much information and they don't usually give verbal warnings or threats beforehand.)

Ideally, assessing the risk would be carried out using a validated set of reliable indicators, with detailed semi-structured interviews performed by trained mental health professionals. In schools, social workers, counselors or school psychologists can screen young people for risk of potential violence perpetration and refer them to other mental health professionals who could do a more thorough assessment if necessary. Of course, adequate screenings depend largely on adequate time, resources and staff training.

Not every young person who makes a threat to hurt others will end up committing an act of violence toward others, and very few will ever commit a multiple mass shooting. But just as we take threats of suicide seriously, we should pay equal attention to those who say they might harm others.

We have to do all we can to make sure our children are safe, and that they all come home at the end of the school day. We can take steps as a community to pay attention to mental health and violence as it occurs every day, not just when horrible acts of great magnitude occur.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Daniel J. Flannery.

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Pro-gun rights US petition to deport Piers Morgan

LONDON (AP) — Tens of thousands of people have signed a petition calling for British CNN host Piers Morgan to be deported from the U.S. over his gun control views.

Morgan has taken an aggressive stand for tighter U.S. gun laws in the wake of the Newtown, Connecticut, school shooting. Last week, he called a gun advocate appearing on his “Piers Morgan Tonight” show an “unbelievably stupid man.”

Now, gun rights activists are fighting back. A petition created Dec. 21 on the White House e-petition website by a user in Texas accuses Morgan of engaging in a “hostile attack against the U.S. Constitution” by targeting the Second Amendment. It demands he be deported immediately for “exploiting his position as a national network television host to stage attacks against the rights of American citizens.”

The petition has already hit the 25,000 signature threshold to get a White House response. By Monday, it had 31,813 signatures.

Morgan seemed unfazed — and even amused — by the movement.

In a series of Twitter messages, he alternately urged his followers to sign the petition and in response to one article about the petition said “bring it on” as he appeared to track the petition’s progress.

“If I do get deported from America for wanting fewer gun murders, are there any other countries that will have me?” he wrote.

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Start of "Santa rally" dampened by "cliff" worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks edged lower on Monday as caution over the potential for volatility driven by worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" dampened enthusiasm at the start of a seasonally strong period for equities.

The S&P 500 index <.spx> declined 0.9 percent on Friday, its biggest drop in more than a month, as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain any traction on Thursday night.

Sharp moves like that highlight how headlines from Washington can whipsaw markets, especially during the thinly traded period over the Christmas holidays.

Still, with the S&P 500 up 0.8 percent in December and on course for its strongest month since September, some analysts are predicting that stocks will find their footing during a market seasonality known as the "Santa rally."

"Right now we've seen some very constructive action in the market so I think that bodes well for this being a positive seasonal 'Santa' period over the coming seven days," said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at The PrinceRidge Group.

Wald points to an all-time high in the NYSE advance-decline line, which compares the advancing and declining stocks, as indication of strong participation in the rally off November lows that is setting stocks up for their best year since 2009. A large number of advancers to decliners shows there is broad participation across the equity market.

"Pull backs are buying opportunities," said Wald. "There has been really great participation on this move, a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks behaving well, pushing out to the upside; we're seeing some good leadership from offensive sectors of the market as well."

The Santa seasonality covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Since 1928, The S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during this period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 35.78 points, or 0.27 percent, to 13,155.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> fell 3.69 points, or 0.26 percent, to 1,426.46. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 10.68 points, or 0.35 percent, to 3,010.33.

The S&P 500 remains up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. elections. The yearly gain would be the best since 2009.

Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.

"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we've had the past couple of weeks - cliff talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.

"You can't trade on what you don't know and we truly don't know what they are going to do," he said.

Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.

Trading volumes are expected to be muted, with U.S. equity markets scheduled to close at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas holiday on Tuesday.

In addition, a number of European markets will operate on a shortened session, with other markets closed entirely.

U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, but will conduct a post-approval study to test long-term safety and efficacy. Shares fell 4.7 percent to $24.50.

Herbalife Ltd dipped 5.8 percent to $25.68 in premarket after the company said it expects to exceed its previously announced repurchase authorization guidance and has retained Moelis & Company as its strategic advisor. The declines put the stock on track for a ninth straight decline.

Yum Brands Inc advanced 1.7 percent to $64.98 after Shanghai's food safety authority said the level of antibiotics and steroids in the company's KFC chicken was within official limits.

(Reporting By Edward Krudy; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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LSE agrees LCH Clearnet purchase

24 December 2012 Last updated at 07:56 ET

The London Stock Exchange is to buy a 60% stake in LCH Clearnet, the European clearing house, but for a lower price.

The LSE will pay 366m euros ($ 482m; £300m), about 100m euros below the original offer price.

The lower price reflected new European rules requiring clearing houses to hold more capital, the companies said.

Clearing houses enable the trading of shares between two parties, charging a fee to guarantee the sales should one side default.

By requiring clearing houses to hold more money in reserve, the authorities hope to protect such firms against a major customer hitting a financial crisis.

“Today’s announcement is a success for LSE shareholders,” said Peter Lenardos, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

“We believe that shareholder approvals will be sought in January and we still expect the transaction to complete in the first quarter of 2013.”

The deal was originally due to be completed by the end of this year. The UK’s Office of Fair Trading approved the acquisition earlier this month.

By taking over LCH, the LSE should be better able to compete with rivals such as NYSE Euronext and Deutsche Börse, which own clearing houses.

Demand for clearing transactions are expected to increase over the next few years as regulators force banks and other parties to channel trades through regulated clearing houses to ensure their risk positions can be better monitored.

BBC News – Business

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IIROC: Resume, Northern Financial Corp.

Title Post: IIROC: Resume, Northern Financial Corp.
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Colts recovering coach returns to team facility

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — Chuck Pagano was back at work Monday morning.

Three months after taking an indefinite leave to battle leukemia, the Colts' coach was scheduled to meet with players, coaches and reporters as he retook the reins from interim coach Bruce Arians.

When Pagano arrived at the team headquarters, he drove past an inflatable Colts player to the side of the driveway with a simple message across the chest "Welcome Back Chuck." The sign usually reads "Beat," plus whichever team the Colts play next.

Indianapolis (10-5) has been waiting months for this day, and last week Arians called Pagano's impending return the best Christmas gift the team could get.

Pagano began the first of three rounds of chemotherapy Sept. 26, after the team completed its final practice during a bye week.

When the Colts returned to their practice facility Oct. 1, they were told Pagano had cancer and was taking an indefinite leave.

Arians, a prostate cancer survivor, immediately established the goal: Play long enough so Pagano could return to the sideline this season.

If all goes well at practice this week, Pagano will likely be on the sideline calling the shots Sunday against AFC South champion Houston in the regular-season finale. It would be the first time Pagano has been making game-day decisions since Jacksonville scored a last-minute touchdown on an 80-yard TD pass in Week 3, handing Indy it's only home loss this season.

Under Arians, the Colts did better than anyone expected.

When players arrived at training camp in August, they handed out T-shirts that showed where the so-called experts figured they would finish this season: The NFL's worst team again.

But with Sunday's 20-13 victory at Kansas City, Indy clinched its first playoff spot of the post-Peyton Manning era and Arians tied the league record for most wins after a midseason coaching change (nine). Indy is the fourth team in league history to win two or fewer games one season and 10 or more the next and became the second team in league history to lose 14 or more games one season and win 10 or more the next — joining the 2008 Miami Dolphins.

Pagano was never far from the Colts' thoughts while he was out.

He was in contact with players and coaches primarily through phone calls and text messages, watched tapes of practices and games on his computer, attended three home games and sometimes showed up at the team complex. He occasionally gave pregame or postgame speeches throughout his recovery.

On Nov. 5, Pagano's oncologist, Dr. Larry Cripe, said the illness was in complete remission, though Pagano still had to complete two more rounds of chemotherapy. The last round ended the first week of December. Last Thursday, Cripe said he gave Pagano medical clearance to return to the team. Cripe said he was putting no restrictions on what Pagano could do, only that he advised Pagano, as he does with other patients, to scale things back if necessary.

___

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